Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the tension caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are issued from multiple capitals. Considerable effort is allocated on managing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From observation points, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by NATO members.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment creates sudden vibrations, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: several casualties, damage and utility failures in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from US leadership follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, endure.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House presumes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does little to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from thinking that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Moscow is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its supporters are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding civilians and areas but preventing a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its advantage.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of diplomats, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, largely rely on ongoing international assistance.
