A decade after the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the fundamentals. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Each writes two articles that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, duties, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to inform and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, justified arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, urged the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
